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The Pastor's Heart with Dominic Steele
Christian leaders join Dominic Steele for a deep end conversation about our hearts and different aspects of Christian ministry each Tuesday afternoon.
We share personally, pastorally and professionally about how we can best fulfill Jesus' mission to save the lost and serve the saints.
The discussion is broadcast live on Facebook then available in video on our website <u><b><a href="http://www.thepastorsheart.net">http://www.thepastorsheart.net</a></u></b> and via audio podcast.
The Pastor's Heart with Dominic Steele
A new openness to searching for purpose and meaning. Are we post Christian or post secular? - with Mark McCrindle
The new McCrindle report ‘An undercurrent of faith’ says:
- Those turning to Christian faith are not who we might expect - it’s especially older people, the recently widowed and recently separated or divorced.
- The move is most on away from Christian identity in outer suburbia and regional areas.
- Australians are still turning to Christianity in large numbers, despite a decline in Christian affiliation.
- While 85,000 15-24 year olds have moved towards Christianity in the last five years, that’s dramatically down on a decade ago
Founder and Principle of McCrindle research, Mark McCrinde, says his report shows a new search for purpose and meaning and asks is “Australia Post Christian or are we now Post Secular?”
Plus we compare the findings of the national McCrindle report with the recent Sydney Anglican report on Church attendance.
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it is the pastor's heart and dominic steel. And how should ministry strategies change in the light of a new report into changes and trends in religious affiliation in australian society? Mark mccrindle is with us today. He's compiled a major new report, an Undercurrent of Faith. What advice does Mark MacRindle have for us as church leaders today?
Speaker 1:An overview on the changes in religious affiliation in Australian society. Several big findings. Those turning to Christian faith are not who we might expect. It's especially older people, the recently widowed, the recently separated and divorced, especially older people, the recently widowed, the recently separated and divorced. Outer suburbia and regional areas is where the move is on away from Christian identity and the top reasons that people move towards and away from Christian faith. Australians are still turning to Christianity in significant numbers, but that's despite a decline in Christian affiliation, while 85,000 15 to 24 year olds have moved towards Christianity in recent years. That's actually dramatically down on a decade ago and more young Christians are moving towards no religion and significantly, there is a search for purpose and meaning.
Speaker 1:And the report asks is Australia now post-Christian or post-secular? Mark McRindle, thanks for coming in. Let's start with your pastor's heart. I mean, you're not a pastor, you're a researcher, but you are significantly involved in your local church and concerned for Australians to know and trust and love the Lord Jesus. As you've taken this step back from the Australian church scene and looked at what's going on, what's it done to your heart?
Speaker 2:I think there's great cause for encouragement with some of this data. You know we can sometimes toil away and feel it's hard soil and we can't see fruit and the times are headed in one direction, that's away from Christianity, towards more secularism, away from the church. But it was encouraging to see this, to see, sure, there is that major trend, but there are countertrends, there are undercurrents. I found that excellent and just even with youth, young adults and young people, there's some vibrant spots that we're seeing and some great encouragement as young people in a very secular culture and materialistic world are looking for substance, meaning and purpose and many are finding that in Christianity.
Speaker 1:Let's go big picture first. And there is an overall drop in people identifying as Christians in the Australian census. But and we'll put this up on the screen here your report says there's an increase in people attending church. Now I'm a bit sceptical, but give me the thesis.
Speaker 2:Yeah well, firstly, you know that big headline figure there I mean to drop in 10 years. That's three census periods but 10 years in time.
Speaker 1:From 61 to 44. 61, that's millions of people.
Speaker 2:That's national.
Speaker 1:That's kind of affiliation of I am a Christian or I'm a no religion.
Speaker 2:Exactly that's the census question. It's an optional question. Most Australians fill it in and it shows a big move to no religion, not so much from Christianity to other religions. But yes, what we're trying to paint here is that, look, there's more to that story and there's not just the shift to no Christianity, from Christianity to no religion. There's a shift back the other way, and we pick that up in the report. But also this data on church attendance is quite encouraging. Every year that the census is conducted in Australia, the National Church Life Survey conduct a study of those in the pews and their data looks at the proportion of Australians who attend church once a month or more is the definition, and so you can see that it's largely remained stable. Most recent year of 2021, it went up significantly. A slight methodology change there, where they include people who attend church via online, not just turning up who attend church via online, not just turning up?
Speaker 1:Have they given you the breakdown between the in-person attendance and the online attendance?
Speaker 2:They do have that data as well. Yeah, and it's certainly a few percentage points is the online only, so it's probably not too much different, because I'm sceptical here because I mean, we're thinking 2021,.
Speaker 1:That was the time of lockdown too. I know our attendance was a mess in 2000, and I don't think we were different to any of our friends.
Speaker 2:Well, 2021 was even the census was conducted in some of the lockdowns, so it was a fraught year. I think anything with a 2020 or 2021 date has an asterisk beside it, so I think we need to keep that in mind as well. But regardless of whether it's a couple of percentage points below what it's recording, it shows relatively stable church attendance in Australia amidst declining Christianity identification. So that tells us that, while cultural Christianity is dissipating and people aren't going to tick that box because of some heritage, history or cultural connection that is the Christianity box those that are genuine in their faith and in their Christianity are still attending church and there's no real change there. So there might be within the total Christianity. There's certainly a cultural Christianity and there's a genuine Christianity, and it's not as though the genuine Christianity is dropping in the same way culturally.
Speaker 1:Let's have a look at the Sydney Anglicans attendance report over the last 10 years and those of you watching will be able to see that Mark has better graphic designers on his team because I've got your graph on the left and the Sydney Anglicans on the right, and I mean one of the Pentecostal leaders that I was talking to.
Speaker 1:when I told him that the Anglicans had gone down 7%, he said actually that's a fantastic result in that season, because his experience in the Pentecostal tribe was that they'd gone down significantly more. So how do you put those two graphs together?
Speaker 2:Yeah, well, I think the big one is the big reason for the difference is including online. I mean, it would be the same if we say who goes to the office versus who goes to work.
Speaker 1:Yeah, going to work is digital.
Speaker 2:For many people, hybrid is the mainstream, and I think that's true of even some social gathering, it's true of training and education, where it can be done in a hybrid way, and it's true, therefore, of church. So you are getting a lot more people just sort of resting back on the digital option. Even if they're still turning up on occasion, they probably aren't making the regular church category, which is at least monthly in the building, but maybe with the online that's what gets them there.
Speaker 1:And that's going to have an impact on, if you like. But I mean, people tune into our service and I don't know who they are and in terms of and I don't think they're giving to us and you know, and they're not on one of the ministry teams, perhaps a little bit they are in that some people might tune into us when they're on holidays or away for a weekend or something like that, but overall that commitment's not the same.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think that's right, Dominic, and it's important, I think, to remind Christians of that requirement to not give up meeting together. And yet, you know, we're in an era where it's not just online church, but people have any number of preachers that they can go to, or other what might be spiritual support apps and other things. They say you know what I'm getting my church or my spiritual input through these apps? I don't need to be part of church anymore.
Speaker 1:And part of the problem there is it's a DIY faith rather than actually I'm being held to account by a prophet of God.
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 1:Now let's go to this next slide on Christian or people moving from no religion to Christianity. Beneath the headline figures, there's a steady stream of people, and so this is the countercultural trend that you were talking about. Tell me about that?
Speaker 2:Well, first thing to say is that the definition of religion, or how someone fills the census box, in particularly around Christianity, has changed. So people used to tick and in fact the census question lies right in the midst of culture questions what's your ancestry? Where were your parents born? What language do you speak at home? What's your religion? Because when the census was put together, and pretty much for most of the last century, that's how you fill in the religion question. Well, I'm born in Britain, so it's Church of England or it's Anglican and so being, but actually that's changed now.
Speaker 2:We surveyed Australians. We said how do you fill it in? And the majority of Australians said they fill the religion question in based on their current belief and active practice. And if they don't currently believe the tenets of Christianity and they're not actively practicing it, then they're not ticking that box. And so that's one reason we've seen the decline is cultural. Christianity is no longer something that people go for. If they're choosing Christianity, it's a real… it's. I believe it Exactly.
Speaker 1:Or it's more, I believe it. We're washing out the nominals.
Speaker 2:Exactly. There's something substantial in that, and that's why these figures 800,000 almost in 2016, who said no religion have come across to Christianity.
Speaker 1:So you think the 880 there back in 2006 is more likely to be a higher nominal percentage, whereas the 784 in 2021 is more likely to be a real faith group.
Speaker 2:Well, I wouldn't discriminate too much. I mean the trend has been over the last few decades. So if people, particularly if they were no religion, then clearly it's not history or heritage. No, no, no, they're in the no religion category and now they're saying Christianity, that's close to conversion, or certainly taking that Christianity seriously, yeah, yeah, that's significant, isn't it?
Speaker 2:And so you know 800,000, I mean, that's 2.4 million people over that period of time that have gone from no religion to Christianity in a time when the frame defining Christianity, defining your faith, is more tightly held. Let's go to geography.
Speaker 1:And I was very interested because I was part of the committee in Sydney that looked at the geographic changes in church attendance here, and there's something going on on the national picture of changes in church attendance based on, well, how close you are to the city and how far away.
Speaker 2:Let's start with the national picture and you Sure Well you've got this lower and straight one there, which is the inner cities. Well, you've got inner cities and capital cities running along the bottom there, where you've got inner cities and capital cities running along the bottom there. In other words, they have had the they've been sort of the most stable.
Speaker 1:So where we are right in the inner city of Sydney now, there has been a move away, but it's not been as rapid as the move away in either the regional, the outer suburbia or the regional Exactly, and that's this line that starts at the very bottom and goes up to the top. And that's spectacular, isn't it? Yes, yes.
Speaker 2:So what's happened over the last five years particularly is that a lot of geographies have changed in Australia. Forty per cent of the population in Australia now live at a new address. Compared to the previous census, that's more than 10 million australians, and a lot of the movement has not just been from this suburb to that suburb, but from this city to this regional area or from this outer suburban area to this, uh, outer regional area, and so a lot of the inner city has been moving to your regions or or other areas for cost of living purposes, and if you can decouple work from location, hey, they can keep their inner city job, but work it maybe from a region. And so the result is that the proportion that used to be the lowest in terms of moving to no religion from Christianity has now become the highest, because, in relative terms, these regional and remote areas are relatively small. You've got a lot of city people coming in, bringing their no religion with them in that sense.
Speaker 1:So you think it's primarily to do with people moving house, rather, and, if you like, what was the upstream flowing into the downstream?
Speaker 2:That's right, correct, and it's demographic change. It's the internal migration people from the cities moving to regional areas, changing the nature of those areas that used to have a slightly higher religion category. The other thing that's happened you have a higher Christianity count when you've got an older population, but what's happening at the moment with this sea change and tree change is that a lot of people making the move are the young couples and the young families and they also have a lower Christianity count. So, yes, as the cities move to the regions, we're getting some of those regions look a little bit more like the inner cities in terms of higher, no religion count.
Speaker 1:Let's go to this next graph, and this one is the one from the Sydney Anglicans. That's a, if you like, a compare and contrast, and the two ones that I wanted to draw your attention to are the blue line, which is the increase in the no religions, and then the brown line, which is the Protestant affiliation.
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 1:Now we can see that South Sydney, which is inner Sydney, has only had really a minus 5%. Southwestern Sydney a minus 5%. Interestingly sorry, this is minus 5 on the nuns. You know, yes, interestingly whereas you go to Wollongong big increase in the no religions and you know Western Sydney. So it's out in Wollongong, in the region, that we've had the big increase in the no religion, whereas the Protestant affiliation hasn't changed at all much in the inner city but it's over here in the Wollongong, western Sydney and Northern. So that actually fits with your national picture, I think.
Speaker 2:Yes, that's right, exactly. You know also the people moving to the regional areas where you've got a lot more housing, going in, young families looking, young couples looking to start life, they're also making lots of other changes. If they're moving locations, they're saying, well, you know what that church, we're part of that Christianity, or you know that history, we're going to carve our own pathway out. So you do get a bit of change in religious persuasion.
Speaker 1:I mean it does say to you, doesn't it, that I ought to be on the lookout for people moving into my area, you know, and thinking, how can I pick up these new people?
Speaker 2:Yeah Well, you mentioned at the start, Dominic, that where you see people moving to Christianity above the average are those moving to a new address, those widowed and single. They also are moving away from Christianity at above average rates. Really, they're in both camps, they're in both categories moving to and moving from. In other words, when there's a major life change, whether that be changing address, moving location, changing family situation, people will move to faith and people will move away from faith, depending on where they're at in their approach.
Speaker 1:We've been running divorce care here for 18 years or something like that, and I would say our course Introducing God has been perhaps the major flow of people into this church, but our second major flow would be the divorce care course. So when I saw that you were saying the recently divorced was particularly open to Christian faith, I thought, ah, that rings true for me. And then I thought what do I do to help our church appeal to the recently widowed, the bereaving?
Speaker 2:Yes, yes, help our church.
Speaker 1:appeal to the recently widow the bereaving and I thought there's a strategy question for us to have staff team discussions on.
Speaker 2:Well, it's important because that's when people are thinking about those things in life which we found are the most likely to bring people to Christianity from no religion searching for purpose, meaning, belonging and connection, looking for spiritual answers in life and of course, we seek most deeply when there's pain meaning belonging and connection. Looking for spiritual answers in life, and of course, we seek most deeply when there's pain, hurt, relational breakdown. So they're key categories, key times to really connect with that part of the community.
Speaker 1:Let's just think, though, also demographics, because you're saying and we'll put this up on the slide here that increasing numbers of older Australians are moving towards Christian faith. That surprised me, because, in my sense, the baby boomers people a little bit older than me are pretty hardened, pretty tough, pretty set in their ways, and yet.
Speaker 2:Yet when they get to that life stage stage maybe it's looking after an elderly parent and seeing them through health challenges or or death, um, maybe it's, uh, seeing the grandchild come along, starting to think about the future and purpose, or maybe their own lifestyle and life stages and health issues you start to think about mortality, life, the future and eternity, and so that's one of the factors that do get older people to reflect on what they believe.
Speaker 2:Now, keep in mind, these 55-plus that are above average moving from no religion to Christianity are also those who have most likely had an early Christianity experience. They went to Scripture as kids, exactly, they left it. It wasn't for them the institution or church problems they had, whatever it was, they moved away. But there's somehow evidently been a seed planted in many of them and they, at the later end of life, start to look back to that. In fact, the proportion of former Christians coming back to faith so census longitudinally tallies this, it's quite interesting has been increasing five years by five years. There's more people who were a Christian moved away and now are saying Christianity again. That's a growing group, and particularly in the older.
Speaker 1:So if we think about the National Church Life Survey, there's hope for those returners, if you like, and potentially to see an increase in returners.
Speaker 2:Yeah, exactly One in five of those who sits in the pews of a church made a decision for the faith as adults. So do you?
Speaker 1:think what would you be saying if you were giving a consultation for church leaders, which in fact you are doing right? Now what do you think we should be thinking strategically? I mean about older people. Should we think, ah, we haven't got an older people's service, Should we have one? That kind of thing?
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, definitely. You know, clearly Australia and most ministries around the world put their energies into children's and youth ministry and I think that's very appropriate and there's data in this to show that there are good numbers of young people moving from no religion to Christianity, which for young people definitely seems like it is a conversion. It is a true faith, because they're not doing it to get in line with the broader culture.
Speaker 1:No, no, no, we're against cult. Exactly, they're not running with the peer group pressure.
Speaker 2:Definitely. But if you look at the above average movements and where the peak is, it's in the older categories and I think we don't naturally have ministries there and we need to, particularly because that's where the population growth is. People are living longer and there's great opportunity for ministry.
Speaker 1:Let's go to the next slide and I just want you to give us I mean, you've just told me really good things about the growth in the older. Tell me about the middle-aged and the younger, where it's not going as well.
Speaker 2:Well, with the younger and right through to middle age we've got people moving away from Christianity at a faster rate than that. Population share is growing. So in fact you can see change in the share of population. We've got an ageing population. That's why there's growth in the older age groups and a slight shrinkage here as percentage of population. But the percentage share of Christianity is dropping in the younger age groups at a faster rate.
Speaker 1:What does it mean, though, if I go to the next slide, that you're saying that the well? I'm just interested with the baby boomers here that they're less likely percentage-wise. I mean, there might be more of them and more of them turning to Christian faith, but of the ones who turn to Christian faith, they're the ones who are not going to church. No, just a correction.
Speaker 2:This is the total population who says Christianity is their religion, right, by age group and now, whether they attend church regularly, right. So in other words, there's a lot more baby boomers who tick Christianity on the census.
Speaker 1:A lot fewer young people tick Christianity, so there's a bigger nominal percentage. Exactly there, a lot fewer young people tick Christianity, so there's a bigger nominal percentage. There's really 74% nominals among the baby boomers, whereas you're actually saying if I look over to Gen Z, there's only 32% who are nominals in Gen Z.
Speaker 2:If a young person, that's exactly right, dominic. If a young person says my faith is Christianity or I tick Christianity on the census form, two-thirds of them are at church. They're genuine in that faith. They're practicing that through regular church attendance and you know we'd imagine other Christian practices as well. So it's a solid number. When you look at young people in Christianity, if they're moving particularly from no religion to Christianity, you can almost guarantee that they're backing that up with a Christian lifestyle.
Speaker 1:Let's stay on that younger person moving towards Christianity. And you report and we'll go to that slide now you report that more than 85,000 youth have moved towards Christianity between 2016 and 2021. And I mean we want to celebrate those 85,000 moving against the peer group, but it is significant that it's a significant drop from 124,000 15 years ago.
Speaker 2:Exactly, and just think about that. And alarming really Well, yes, it's harder to see that shift. I mean good numbers and great to see. But just think for a moment in 2006,. Of all of the young people and this is 15 to 24-year-olds who said no religion, 19% of one in five had moved to Christianity five years later. That's the numbers. Nowadays it's only 8%, but still 8% of the total young people no religion five years on, ticked Christianity on the box. So there is a movement from no religion to Christianity.
Speaker 2:It's declining, so I shouldn't think the no religions are not winnable 8% of them are winnable In a five-year period and that's tens of thousands of people. So these are big numbers and these are young people. Now keep in mind that if young people are moving across to Christianity, that's significant because young people are the least likely to say Christianity on the census form, and so to move to Christianity again, it's a genuine decision. If you look at 25-year-olds 25 to 29, that's where it really drops the lowest proportion saying Christianity so nationally it was 44%. For 25-year-olds it's 22% are saying Christianity so well below the national average.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Okay, but the under 24-year-olds and this is the next slide for us are super open to spiritual conversations. Tell us about this super open to spiritual conversations. Well, 51, this is Gen Z, 54, gen Y how does that?
Speaker 2:And this is the percent that say extremely or very open to having a spiritual conversation involving different views than my own. So keep in mind that more than three in four of these are not taking Christianity, so they're most likely no religion. They may be another religion and yet more than half of them are saying hey, I'm open to having the chat, I'm open to spiritual conversations, not so much the older people and why.
Speaker 1:Let's just think I'm prepared to say I'm a no religion and so I'm not offended that you call me a no religion, and I'm prepared to have the. This is one in two people at work are prepared to have that conversation with me, exactly.
Speaker 2:The old truism about don't talk politics and religion doesn't apply to young people, doesn't apply to the Gen Z, gen Y, exactly. And so again, that's another sign of fruit here. So we're seeing them move from no religion to Christianity, we're seeing them be open to having these spiritual conversations and we're seeing big numbers genuinely, if they've ticked Christianity, are practising that through church attendance.
Speaker 1:About dropping out of church, I was. I mean, I read this point on your report about why people drop out of church and honestly I thought I'm kidding myself do you know? But I think there's a spiritual diagnosis to do on this answer. But let's take it on face value first, and then we'll see what you think of the spiritual diagnosis. Tell us what's going on here.
Speaker 2:Well, people move to Christianity for those personal reasons. We discussed purpose, meaning belonging, spiritual connection. People move away from Christianity for the social context, for how the church is perceived for the institution. I felt disappointed in the church due to a lack of accountability, hypocrisy or dishonesty or number three. There I became disillusioned with how Christianity is practiced or represented by its leaders or institutions. So there's a large proportion that are looking at that public context of the church.
Speaker 1:Now somebody might say of me, when I say what I'm about to say, that I'm not prepared to face reality. But those answers are all the person who's just left the church saying the problem is with the church. They're not actually saying the problem is with me. Do you know?
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 1:I don't want to be sexually celibate, or I don't want to be submissive to an almighty. I want to be submissive to an almighty, I want to run my own life and so. But I'm not prepared to actually say the problem is me. So I'm throwing bricks at you, saying the problem is you. Now tell me where I'm wrong. No, that's true. I mean, was that question put to them?
Speaker 2:No, I mean people take an institutional view. When they think Christianity, they're thinking about brand church, they're thinking about the institution they think about the religious structures and that's what they're pushing back on when it comes to their own investigation of Christianity. It's more about that personal yearning for the metaphysical problems in their life and that's what brings them to faith. So coming to Christianity is a faith journey in a more personal way, moving from Christianity that is no longer ticking that box. I've had enough, I'm not going to tick it anymore.
Speaker 1:I don't believe it anymore comes about because of this social context, because I was trying to think about the people who've left our church. And some people who've left our church have gone to the next door church and and at that point you'd say, well, the problem is us. You know others have left our church, really to leave christian faith, and as I've thought about those people, it's it's either been in my, from my perspective, it's either been from my perspective. It's either been something was more important to them really it's always been something was more important to them than God whether it's career is more important to them than God or sex, on their terms, is more important to them than God. But that would be my diagnosis as the person who's been left behind, whereas their diagnosis as the person who's done the leaving is completely different.
Speaker 2:Yeah, well, there's a sense of they're calling it hypocrisy. Maybe there's a sense of hypocrisy in their own lives, just sort of not wanting to, you know, putting perhaps the blame on others. But it does show how the perception of Christianity is governed by the public mood, the media scandals, those sorts of things. And you know it's a good reminder if we're looking for applications to be different to that. And you know, we found in this research that Australians have a problem with institutional religion. They don't have a problem with the local church.
Speaker 1:I mean that is interesting. We've definitely picked that up, that I like you.
Speaker 2:Yes, that's right. I like my church, that's right.
Speaker 1:The one that I don't go to. Yes, yeah, but it is doing kind of a good thing 300 metres away.
Speaker 2:Four in five Australians say the local church in their area is doing great things in their community. So they see it. They don't go, but they see, oh, they're doing great hours. As for institutional church or the structures of the church or whatever, well, aussies are always pushed back on any of these sorts of things. Are we post-religion? We're probably just post-institutional in all its forms. But I think when we're sharing the gospel or talking about the issues of faith, it is more in that understanding of christ and understanding of this person's context, and that's the terrain in which they're open to having those spiritual discussions.
Speaker 1:So as you advise ministers. What strategic changes are you encouraging us to make in the light of this report?
Speaker 2:Firstly, to be aware of the data and the demographics here and opportunities to just make sure we've got ministry opportunities there, I think. Secondly, to involve young people in some of this ministry outreach. As we saw, young people are open to having the conversations. Let's get young people in the church engaged in that. Is it that young people aren't coming along to our events or is it that we're just not inviting them Because this data seems to point out that they're open for the conversation and even attendance? It's probably on us if they're not. I'd also say and obviously we discussed older Australian ministry and opportunities there I think it's about being genuine and admitting that there have been problems in the church and institutional religion, how it's perceived, and that clearly is one of the big belief blockers for Australians that cause them to fold their arms, as it is, as it were, and to say no more. But if we can understand that there is warmth towards Christians, that they know to Christ and to the local church, that's probably the terrain on which we can stand and be examples and engage.
Speaker 1:Mark, thank you so much for coming in and talking to us on the Pastors Heart.
Speaker 2:Thanks so much.
Speaker 1:Dominic Mark McCrindle's been my guest and of course he's from mccrindlecom social research company and that's been super helpful for us and we're very grateful and we'll look forward to your company next Tuesday afternoon on the Pastors Heart.
